Markov chains have been applied to approach the developments in the Middle East in a different but academic style. Maths, not necessarily complicated, are helpful in order to clean the views and to go deeper into the vision of future developments.
Trying to find out what’s coming next is subject to many unexpected events but general trends are visible and remain in the background. Therefore, they are key when making decisions in order to anchor them in accordance with the general picture which remains.
A short explanatory video and the report. Enjoy.
Pax Consulting 
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