A missed invasion is the starting point. An article in the Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant examines why the Dutch intelligence services failed to predict Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This post uses that failure to explore two wider questions: how integrated intelligence services work, and where intelligence is heading next.
The Dutch placed their trust in a single source, supposedly well connected, who insisted that Russia would not invade Ukraine. Other warning signs were passed over. American and British intelligence services had been briefing their European counterparts for months and continued to do so up to February 2022. Even the Ukrainians, however, did not heed the warnings until the very end.
For the Russian services, this was a success. Their disinformation networks helped keep the invasion plan concealed, even from Putin’s closest advisers and senior figures in the military and the Presidential Administration. The Dutch asset was outside the circle that knew. A source can be close to power and still be far from the decision.
One agency, all the intelligence: that is the promise of an integrated service, bringing domestic, foreign and signals intelligence (SIGINT) under the same roof. Its advocates have long argued that this arrangement avoids coordination problems between separate services. Perhaps—but it creates problems of its own, including inefficiencies. It also concentrates information and capabilities in ways that may threaten democracy itself. Montesquieu should not be left at the intelligence community’s door.
Then comes the future. The post offers a modest forecast of how intelligence services may evolve as AI reshapes their work, shifts their priorities and changes where the money goes.
The forecast points towards more collection, with analysis losing ground in the balance of effort in terms of human resources allocated. Analytical teams, meanwhile, are expected to benefit chiefly from ad hoc AI tools. More emphasis on gathering information; new tools for making sense of it. Actionable intelligence will lead the purpose of every intelligence project.
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