More than a thousand possible scenarios have been analysed in which the various vicissitudes that may occur from today on the Ukrainian scenario have been contemplated. It has been starting from the present moment, that is, from the beginning of the talks in Saudi Arabia and Zelensky’s refusal to hold elections.
The scenarios have been analysed using the theory of analysis of competing hypotheses.
It is also based on the disunity of EU members, as has been made clear in the mini summit held in Paris by Macron and the subsequent visit of Starmer and Macron to Trump that is scheduled for the week of February 24. In all scenarios, the following propositions have been taken as origin:
From this starting point, possible timelines of evolution of events have been broken down.
For example, feasible results in the German elections have been taken into consideration, as well as the weakness of Macron’s governments with possible twists such as the holding of elections in France at a given time.
A number of possible timelines have also been taken into consideration with regard to Ukraine. For example, Zelensky has been anticipated to be eliminated by a Russian or GRU special operations coup or any other circumstance.
It has also been considered that elections will be held in Ukraine with the possible results. That is, whether Zelensky wins or a pro-Russian party wins. It has also been contemplated that in Ukraine, due to the evolution of the war or because Russia manages to instigate an uprising against the Kyiv government, a civil war will end up taking place.
In Russia, the possibility has also been contemplated that, in the face of the evolution of events, the weariness of Russian society will translate into riots and protests, with varying intensity.
There has also been a gamble on the possibility that Trump’s decisions in the United States will instigate a protest movement that will gain strength. There are already significant Republicans who are speaking out publicly against Trump’s decisions, especially those related to Ukraine.
Regarding the European Union, account has been taken of the lack of internal cohesion, the disparity of the governments that make it up and the weakness of the governing coalitions in some countries. This conditions the support it is willing to provide to Ukraine. Although Hungary and Italy are pro-Russia and pro-Trump (mainly respectively), they are not immune to EU membership either.
For many European politicians, it is difficult to defend a coherent external line of action, given the situation created by the understanding between Russia and the Trump administration.
The chances of Trump and/or Putin dying of disease or an attack have also been contemplated.
In all scenarios, analyses of the evolution of the situation have been carried out, giving different weights to the possibilities that are generated with each step, according to the credibility and impact of each evolutionary process.
The following conclusions can be drawn from all the analyses carried out:
- The EU and Ukraine are starting from a position of extreme weakness, exacerbated by the collaboration of Russia and the United States.
- The EU must increase its support for Ukraine decisively, capable of replacing to a large extent the support provided by the United States.
- There are only favourable scenarios for the EU and Zelensky’s Ukraine if the following circumstances are met:
- That there is a rift between Moscow and Washington.
- Ukraine should continue to be led by someone who opposes Moscow’s wishes, whether it is Zelensky or a replacement with the same ideas and determination and who has the support of the Ukrainian military leadership.
- That in Russia and/or in the United States there are movements of protest entity (the Russian opposition revives and takes to the streets and in the United States a movement similar to the one generated against the participation of their country in the Vietnam War should be generated). The emergence of one of the two would be enough.
With regard to the support being given from the West to Ukraine, in addition to the official figures circulating in the media after the approvals of economic and material aid packages, there is a flow of weapons that is not officially counted. These are the aids that the different intelligence services are providing to the Ukrainian forces. There are billions in weapons and ammunition that are being purchased in countries that use Russian-origin material and that are sent through alternative channels to Ukraine.
These activities are not only carried out by the United States or the United Kingdom, but there are other countries involved in these activities.
This issue is mentioned because the support for Ukraine that the EU must assume must be of remarkable steadfastness to replace, to a large extent, the open and covert support that Ukraine receives.
In reality, the emergence of protest movements in Russia or the United States is linked to the separation between Moscow and Washington.
As has been said, the starting position of the EU and Ukraine is one of great weakness and for the EU the lack of internal unity is lethal.
In any case, it can be deduced from the analyses carried out that, if there is no distancing in some way between Moscow and Washington, the result will be contrary to the needs of Ukraine and the EU.
This becomes more complicated if we take into account that none of the actors involved want the negotiations to be interrupted (neither the EU nor Ukraine have spoken out against these talks, only if they have not been invited). However, the breakdown of negotiations would be a necessary factor to materialise the rift between Russia and the United States which, as we have said, is a necessary condition for the interests of the EU and Ukraine.
And this is where Western intelligence services come into play. They have a golden opportunity to do work that will tangibly serve the societies they serve.
Support for the Russian opposition would be essential to generate instability within Russia. The Trump administration has withdrawn subsidies (among multiple other programs that have been paralyzed by DOGE, the department headed by Musk) to all these associations that have taken refuge in the United States (there are some in Europe, but far fewer). Although they were not supported by 100% American subsidies, the possibilities of action have certainly been reduced.
Intelligence agencies also have to take care of the material’s arrival in Ukraine through alternative channels. It seems that the CIA has not yet cut them, but it is a possibility that they will be cut off at any time. Other channels are run by the United Kingdom, which will need help to keep them active.
Another point on which they can contribute an invaluable task would be to obtain high-level information on the talks taking place between Russia and the United States. To do this, it is necessary to obtain information from the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation and also from the White House or the Secretariat of State. But there is room to be imaginative and explore other avenues such as that of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s entourage, who has taken part in the talks, not only as a host, but has also applied to play a more active role as a mediator.
This would allow European states to make appropriate decisions and anticipate events.The current situation of confusion is due to a huge failure of Western intelligence services, but also of Western diplomats.
Pax Consulting 
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