Iran war development

The ongoing war in the Middle East starts its fourth week. Here you have a forecast of the evolution of the conflict. We have taken into account the available information, Trump’s course of action in other scnearios such as Venezuela, and intelligence-gathering growing difficulties for Israel and the United States. The United States are likely to avoid getting boots on the ground. Trump has not shown any interest in regime change (as it has happened in Venezuela and it seems to be the case in Cuba). He just seeks for friendly regimes. Irrelevant the type of regime that runs the country. At the same time, intelligence capabilities that have favoured operations against Iran are being reduced as the Iranian security apparatus are tightening countermeasures within the administration. One topic which remains difficult to assess refers to defections. It is clear that Israel and the U.S. counted on assets of interest who were able to provide relevant information which facilitated the elimination of top leaders of the regime. But the information seems to be waning as conflict evolves or it is more difficult for the assets to get it. Defections from within the top security apparatus will be key for a real change regime. If it does not materialize the regime is likely to survive, transformed for sure, but it might remain. Enjoy the read and video.