Shaping the world

As we know more about Trump’s ideas and moves, we can start making an educated guess on what he has in mind.

Elon Musk at his appearance at the Oval Office (with his son) mentioned inadvertently that military expenditure was too high.

It comes after the request to NATO partners to increase their contributions to the alliance. It seems, in matter of days, that all the members have understood and accepted that it has to happen, given that the US (main contributor and core of the alliance) and the NATO Secretary General move in the same direction. Adding to that, it is also clear that Trump is going to reduce US troop presence in Europe.

Europe is obliged to grow up and take in his hands the responsibility of its own defence. Adulthood comes in place.

After Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference and his aggressive reprimand on EU members, we have also known that Trump is willing to hold a meeting with Putin and Xi. He intends to strike a deal with them to reduce the military budget.

Trump has even mentioned that he wants to cut U.S. military expenditure in half. However, he will not move forward with it unless he secures an acceptable, verifiable, and credible commitment from China and Russia to do something similar.

So far, this is what we know. With all this, we have created a narrative to sift through the noise.

“Trump is an entrepreneur. He is practical and a liberal in economics. He manages the country as a company. Financial health is key, and Elon Musk and his DOGE are pruning the administration to balance the books. Trump has declared that every department will go through the DOGE supervision, Department of Defence included.

Reducing military expenditure while keeping the U.S. safe and secure requires its partners to be fully committed to their own defence. That’s why the US are pushing so hard to increase the contributions of NATO partners. This is the first step. If he gets it, he will be able to save some budget.

But he wants more. And here comes China and Russia. Russia has been expending a lot of money in Ukraine. It has almost turned Russia into a war economy. Surely, Putin is willing to reduce this expenditure and be able to address other areas in his government and get the Russian economy back on track.

It would involve easing sanctions on Russia (entities and individuals). It means that Trump has some leverage. And more importantly, it is vital to put an end to the war in Ukraine. And Trump is committed to it, ignoring the EU and Ukraine.

Regarding China, Trump is playing with tariffs. But he has also torn apart an important asset for the “silk road” that China wants to set in motion. That’s what happened in Panama.

Trump has also slid the idea that he might not be so supportive of Taiwan. That’s another message for China.

China is developing its armed forces and increasing its military expenditure. Trump’s plans go against China’s. However, Trump has some levers to pull and can create more if he needs them (as he has already done with Panama).”

This is the chess board Trump is creating so far.

The available data for 2023, according to SIPRI.ORG database, state the following:

In 2023, the total global military expenditure reached approximately $2.44 trillion. The United States accounted for 37% of this total, China for 12%, and Russia for 4.5%.

It’s a reduced version of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It would only involve three countries, and it would be focused on conventional weapons and deployment of troops/bases. The NPT has been pivotal in terms of controlling nuclear weapons (with ups and downs) but it could also be revived or revamped if the Ukraine conflict is solved positively.

It is a complete rebalancing of the status quo the international community has achieved after World War II.

No one can deny that this is a bold and daring move—an attempt to reshape the world. Trump’s legacy would be remembered in history, which is precisely what he aims for.

After reading a few books on Trump, you can depict him as a bold and assertive entrepreneur, unafraid to take significant risks. His negotiation style is often unorthodox, relying heavily on personal instincts and a preference for flexibility over structured planning. While he has achieved notable successes, these accounts also highlight instances where his impulsive decisions and focus on personal branding have led to challenges and controversies in his business endeavours.

What Trump may have in his mind boils down to the fact that if nothing is done, it is a matter of time that the US will lose traction in the world. Taking the initiative when the country still can do it, will allow the US to lead, not only the free world, but the world as a whole.

Trump has always been a tough negotiator. He has always taken advantage of his position and that’s what he is doing at the helm of the main power (by far) of the world. He is not going to ask for permission to get things in favour of his country. He is a doer, not a thinker. He respects doers like Musk, Thiel, Zukerberg and Bezos among others. But he loves himself above all and is desperately eager to leave a legacy that will outlive him, one so grand that it will even cast a shadow over George Washington himself. Trump trumps himself.